I don't know about anyone else, but I am making preparations for the crash. Call it what you will; peak oil, credit crunch, global famine, G.W. Bush's indigestion...
Anyway, I just thought I should start a thread (since there was not one already) so people can share what they are doing to prepare for this, and any new information they wanted to post about it.
I had a pretty good idea a while back about how to survive the end of the world... Going underground... literally.
This book is a good start if you wish to know more.
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I totally agree with you. I have moved out of the big city, bought land out in the country, planted fruit trees and grow most all of my our food. I have not made underground plans, if it gets that bad I'll trust God for my existance or my death. I live in a small tight knit community and we regularly use the barter system for things that need done / and to suppliment feed and other food items. My grandmother is 92 years old and lived thru the 1st great depression and is adamit that self sufficiency is the best way make it thru. So I would rather be prepared for nothing thatn to be unprepared for something.
I'm not so sure I am of the opinion that there will be any sort of crash that will trigger some type of depression but I feel that a rather a slow retrenchment, that last many years, of all the imbalances that have been created over the last 30 yrs. is the more probable outcome.
I am no expert by any means, although I am an active trader and have a deep interest in the financial markets and economy. The Fed has shown recently that it can deal with (probably illegal) any massive failures before they can take place. As much money the Fed has pumped into the system it is not going into yours and mine pockets, yet to Wall Street. The consumer is strapped incomes are stagnant and they cannot support the inflationary environment that we have experienced these past few years.
My personal opinion is that the commodities/inflationary cycle has peaked. If I could I would post many price charts to support my points. Gold has topped out and is headed for $790-800 oz in the next couple weeks after hitting $1000 oz in January.
Dow theory suggests that the stock markets could be in for a very strong rally in the coming months although I am not completely sold on this yet only because I feel there is more trouble on the horizon. But then again the bull stock markets, generally climb a "wall of worry"
So prepare yourself for a slow painfully long recession that will change the way this country looks at and deals with our finances. Better known as the Kondratieff Winter.
Some light reading
http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm
http://www.kondratieffwinter.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave
Sorry I already posted. So I tried to delete this one and it will not let you.
You must examine what lead to our first great depression. Prior to the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 the United States went through several recessions. However, because we were still operating under a capitalistic economy they were short and in retrospect even beneficial because they were simply the way the free market corrected it's self. The Great Depression was the Federal Reserves first test at managing an economic crisis. Needless to say they failed miserably. They took what would had have been an ordinary recession which the country had plowed through with relative ease in the past and turned it into what we all know as the "Great Depression." They did so under the guidance of a president who was still operating under the conservative premise that the market would correct its self. This thinking could not be used under our new economic system and subsequently the federal reserve refused to put more money into circulation making the aforementioned recession into a depression. My long winded point is, I think, as evident from the lack of another substantial depression since the 1930s, the Federal Reserve has learned its lesson. However, considering the Fed's nature of unaccountability I don't rule anything out. In the same token, I think the next president and subsequently the media will blame a pending recession or depression on some arbitrary event (maybe a terrorist attack or a preemptive strike on Iran) instead of pegging it on Fed, the true culprit. By no means am I excusing the Fed's actions but I do think the elites are smart enough to make it seem as if they're not at fault. If the majority of the public were to figure out that the federal reserve system were guilty for plunging our nation into turmoil the elites would see so much civil and or violent discourse I would hope they're system would crumble before them.
I have been filling my cellar and freezers and what ever else I can when I find good sales, to stock up.
I also have a feeling it will happen, but when?
Well it really has started already. I think the Fed will print enough money to drag it out as long as they can, but ultimately I think we will see real problems starting in the next two or three months. The jumbo adjustable rate mortgages will start to reset this month which will begin to squeeze the upper middle class and bring a whole new round of foreclosures and bank failures. Oil will keep going up, and gold will continue it's rise, which also means the dollar will continue it's downward spiral. The banks will have to start paying back the 1 trillion that the fed printed earlier this year (which they don't have). The commodities bubble will continue to get bigger, and food riots will continue worldwide.
I think they are trying to keep the real trouble from starting here until after the elections... probably. Alex Jones thinks that they will start putting people into tent cities as a "solution" to the foreclosure crisis. This sounds like a feasible plan but if we already know about it... Who knows?
At some point I think it will be inevitable that they will enact martial law in at least certain areas, and they will try to control us with food like they are doing to everyone else in the world.
They have also been pushing the avian bird flu virus for several years now, so if things get too bad I would not put it past them to unleash it.
All we can do is prepare though. Don't rely on your freezer, and don't assume anything. Imagine everything being cut off, and prepare from that perspective. Think non-perishables, and also plan to grow a lot of food this year and from now on. We are going to need it.
"Live free or die!"
I am so fubar. Don't own the land my home is on. Living barely from paycheck to paycheck because of tax and the insurance companies.
But if it gets real bad, I can make a heck of a boot sole soup.
DSC
Dig in... or down as it were... They can't kick you out of your own house if they can't find you. Nor would they be willing or able to do so if they did know where you were. Then you truly would own the land. :D ROFLMAO
I am not advocating initiating force or fraud, but did they not defraud us when they made mortgage agreements that were meant to fail? Personally I think the force and the fraud has been initiated already, but not by us. I think it's time for us to respond to it.
"Live free or die!"
One way to prepare for coming economic hardship is to gear up for energy self-sufficiency. I am currently working on a very rugged home power plant centered around a simple but original steam engine design. The engine mechanical energy output will be used to produce electricity. The exhaust heat is further used to produce distilled water, provide space heating, and may also be used to power a very simple cooling system that is based on the principles of jet cooling. I plan also to experiment with using the furnace exhaust to enhance the CO2 in a greenhouse.
This system is powered only by burning biomass such as wood. I hope to use pine needles as I am situated in east Texas where pine needles are ubiquitous.
There remain a lot of unknowns as to how my system will perform, but there is much potential. Anyone who may be interested in these ideas feel free to reply with questions.
I like your ideas. It might be useful to investigate some of the suppressed overunity devices that
could augment your efforts. There has been a strictly enforced propaganda initiative for many years
to brainwash people that overunity violates some basic scientific principle: this is False. A heat pump
is an overunity device; it can produce more heat for the power than a simple resistive heater. These
devices just get the "free" energy from ambient sources.
The best example is the new electrolysis on board hydrogen generators for cars. They 'create' more
energy than they consume by breaking water into a mix of hydrogen and oxygen which is used to
supplement the gasoline. Economies far in excess of what might reasonably be expected from the
enhanced burning characteristics that injected hydrogen imparts are achieved with a minimal drain
on the car's electrical system, using resonance and a catalyst. To see all the technical details, you
could check out the yahoo groups hydroxy, working watercar, and watercar. As was the case with
Bill Williams and Stan Meyers, making a totally free energy car can get you threatened or killed, but supplemental use of electrolysis hydrogen generators is becoming common, with units being sold
ready to install. The first car in 1805 ran on hydroxy generated on board from water. Gasoline
didn't exist yet. You can build these units yourself.
If there were no net energy gain, the increased drag on the engine's charging system would reduce
the fuel economy to compensate for any net gain from the hydrogen. I believe the free energy
captured by this system may have originated as atmospheric static, scalar ambiance, zero point
energy or some such that was absorbed to create the strong bond that is H2O, that allows it to be
so cheaply separated by electricity applied at the resonant frequency of water.
Tesla coils are provably overunity devices too(Meyl). They also generate a lot of healthy orgone
energy nearby to which healing powers have been attributed.
Widespread adoption of any of the several different energy strategies that exist would (will) really
bust a huge exit from the matrix.
Thanks for the info. I've looked into many of these so-called "over-unity" devices. For the most part, they're all nonsense. I hope there are competent individuals working on it, but until I see a working prototype I remain skeptical.
There is no known process that converts energy from one form to another with 100% efficiency, let alone greater than this. Measuring the "efficiency" of a heat pump by considering the heat removed as a function of the energy expended is a different concept than measuring the mechanical energy produced by a device as a function of the energy (fuel) expended. In other words, the fact that we can expend 255 btu of mechanical energy (one hp for 6 minutes) to pump cool river water through a heat exchanger and remove 1000 btu of heat from a home is not the same thing as saying that we can operate an internal combustion engine at one hp output for one hour (2545 btu) while consuming only 1/100 gallon of gasoline (1150 btu). You may understand all this, but I am writing it here primarily for the benefit of others who may be reading this thread.
With respect to automobiles, individuals can fairly easily retrofit cars today that will see 80 mpg in city driving if they are mechanically inclined and are willing to tolerate low performance. The simplest way would be to strip a compact car of as much weight as possible, replace the internal combustion engine with a dc drive motor as small as practical, and then install a small medium voltage battery system... perhaps 48-72 volts and with a capacity that would allow perhaps 10 miles range or even less (in other words, keep the weight down). Now provide a battery charging system that consists of a small efficient gasoline engine driving a permanent magnet alternator. This design takes optimal advantage of the principle that allows hybrid cars to see greater net efficiency. Namely, that internal combustion engines operate most efficiently near their highest rated output. In this case the charging system operates at nearly 100% output at all times (where the thermal efficiency is greatest). If the car is driven properly, battery losses will be minimized as the charging system output will be diverted primarily to the drive motor during operation. One example of this was done in the early 80's with fuel economy exceeding 70 mpg. I expect greater results with today's technology.
The best automotive solution of which I am aware is a modern external combustion engine designed by Cyclone Power Technologies. This compact automotive power plant weighs only 330 pounds, has a rated output of 100 hp, 700 ft pounds of starting torque, more than twice the running torque of a standard automotive engine of the same output, requires no transmission as it operates both forward and back at any speed up to 3600 rpm. With no emissions controls equipment it easily passes CA smog standards. It is fueled by almost any liquid or gaseous fuel and with FAR less refining (example: it runs just fine on crude oil, and it will run on ethanol after one pass through a rock still, that is 80-90% ethanol/10-20 water). Cellulosic ethanol would be cost effective with this engine because the costly refining required in preparing ethanol for automotive use today may be discarded. Thermal efficiency is in the low to mid 30's with max efficiency at part load. MPG in a compact car with this power plant will be greater than modern hybrids today.
The advantage of my power plant design is primarily its simplicity and the fact that any high temperature heat source will power it. If it can be burned at a controlled rate, then it will serve as fuel. The entire system can be constructed with minimal fabrication by using readily available, inexpensive off the shelf parts. The end user can easily make repairs. That alone will break the matrix. However, one would have to learn to conserve energy. One thing I've learned since I've been working on this project is how much the average American takes energy for granted.
I agree with the OP. To me its not "if" we are going to have another great depression, but when.
I'm stocking up on canned goods and plan on getting some MREs. I also plan to learn to can and put away food on my own, and start supporting my local Farmer's Market (to keep my purchases and my money here in our local economy). I'm also trying to bone up on skills that will probably be necessary, such as first aid, how to sew, getting a ham radio license, and any other skills that might come in handy.
"There is no worse tyranny than to force a man to pay for what he does not want merely because you think it would be good for him." -- Robert Heinlein
I wouldn't want to live underground. I plan to flee into the mountains during the end times. I'm stocking up on supplies. Mostly ammunition, canned foods and MREs. I already have plenty of guns. We don't really know how bad this recession will be. It's always a good idea to be prepared for the worst.
Good point. I don't want to live underground either, however if there is trouble on a wide scale I would rather be underground than in the mountains... Here's why;
In the mountains, you can still be seen, and you can still be tracked. If there is a big crackdown, you can be found and killed/caught. Also, if you are on the run, you would basically have to carry all of your possessions with you, unless you have a cabin or house, which is not only vulnerable to "the man", but also to other hungry people.
You can only defend or kill what you can see. If they come at you with superior weaponry, you don't have a chance brother. If you are underground however, the only way they can get to you without either heavy or unconventional weapons (both of which are debatable depending on your depth), is through the front door. Strategically you own that completely. Also, depending on your soil type you can have a VERY tough home that can be easily repaired, added on to, or changed completely. It just takes time.
Please research it further man.
"Live free or die!"
I think I'll play devil's advocate. Let's see:
We have an unemployment rate of 5% ; Depression was characterized by rates reaching 25..
Federal Government has acted fairly decisively (albeit questionably) taking action to stabilize market: increasing role of GSE's (Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie) issuing stopgap rebates and allowing increased amortization rates to help ailing companies.
A recent senate bill would basically allow home builder's to deduct their massive losses, eliminating possible bankruptcies for some of the biggest market participants -- Lennar, KB Home, etc.
Lower interest rates have caused a stampede of refinancings; many statistical modesl indicate defaults on Subprime & Alt-a FICO rated loans have peaked or will in the next few months.
The Fed's highly questionable emergency credit line to Bear Stearns HAS instilled a degree of confidence back into capital markets -- say what you like, bear's massive derivative exposure made it imprudent to allow a collapse; don't dare say $2 was a bailout, JPM raised to ten and many bear employee's saw their savings go from 170 to 2 -- moral hazard is averted.
The last few days the dollar has rallied modestly; commodity prices are unsustainable.
Help me out here.
Call me a conspiracy nut, but I firmly believe that the markets and especially Gold prices are being artificially suppressed to prevent a panic. So far this year (2008), the Fed has printed over 1 Trillion dollars to bail out various components in the economy. Most of that has been to banks and other financial institutions which have to be paid back... starting this month. They don't have the money.
Our consumer based economy has ground to a screeching halt. Actual unemployment is MUCH higher than is being reported (close to 15% from what I have read). You forgot to mention the foreclosures and the sinking home prices. Food rationing.
Even a partial nationalizing of the housing or mortgage industries won't help at all. It will only further erode international confidence in the dollar... which does not need much help.
Yes, the Bear Stearns "bailout" did restore a small degree of confidence in the capital markets, but only in as much as investors think they will get bailed out again if the companies get into trouble. Would you invest in CFC right now? That's not confidence, that's suicide.
The rose colored news that is being reported is so full of holes that many day traders that I know are just sitting in cash right now because they don't know what else to do. Some bank loses 2 (more) billion dollars this month and they beat analysts predictions of a loss of 2.2 billion... so the stock goes up! "It's fantastic! They lost less than we thought they would! It's over! We have hit bottom! There is nothing to worry about, everything's fine." Look at the headlines for the last few months just on CNN/Money and tell me I'm wrong.
I actually did name this thread improperly though. I should have called it "The Great Recession" because of the subtle differences in the value of our fiat currency now, whereas back in the 30's our money actually did have value. Either way it still means poverty for us.
Believe it or not... I'm an optimist. I don't think this is the end of times, just the start of really hard times... But 20% or so of the American public voted for Ron Paul. That's more than we had for the 1st American Revolution ;)
"Live free or die!"
Today the unemployment rate is not calculated in the same manner that it was in the past. Applying the same methodology used in the past to determine the rate of unemployment yields a figure of at least 10%. In fact, most economic figures cited by the government today are not determined as they were in the past. For example, if the CPI were calculated using the methodology used in 1980 the value would be 12% today and has been at least 8% since the late 1990's. Of course, any rational person can come to this conclusion by observing the price increases over the last several years. Do you believe "official" government figures over your own eyes and reason?
The recent actions by the government to "stabilize" the market has only further delayed a badly needed recession. These actions will only further exacerbate the imbalances in the U.S. economy, and to a lesser extent the world economy. In other words, the inevitable recession will be delayed but likely more severe. A crucial feedback control of a truly free market, that businesses making poor decisions reap what they sow by FAILING, is hobbled here.
The commodity bull market is in its infancy. The value of the dollar relative to other major currencies is not sustainable, and the trade deficit bears witness to this. The U.S. has been borrowing to consume whereas trade deficits in the past were characterized by high savings rates and heavy industrialization leading to a strengthening of the dollar as production increased. We no longer have the industry (i.e. exports) to support the current purchasing power of the dollar. That purchasing power will soon transfer to those countries that have been industrializing most rapidly in recent years (especially China once they allow the Yuan to float freely against the dollar).
Citizens of many foreign countries will increase their consumption of scarce commodities thereby fueling the commodities bull market. Deficit financing of the U.S. government cannot be sustained much longer without substantial interest rate hikes and/or accelerating monetary inflation. "Entitlement" obligations will soon put even greater political pressure on D.C. to maintain or increase spending levels. All scenarios lead to a dramatic further weakening of the dollar, all except the extremely unlikely possibility that the U.S. soon begins to live within its means.
Wow, mariasman, I could not have said it better. Very nice summary.
I would only add that Latin American countries found themselves in just these circumstances about a century ago, (how many of you knew that Argentina was undeniably the richest country in the Americas back then) and the governments chose to go down the path that our govt is taking now. Some of them are just recovering from the century long recession now, while the others are still in it. The trouble is, that in many of these inflationary depressions, there is no market crash to signal their starting point. Because of this lack of a crash, many can be led to believe that they are in a period of stability until it is far too late.
My advice is to buy some land and learn how to grow things. My parents lived through the depression. My mothers family had a farm and always had food to eat. My fathers family were very often hungry.