“The sole fact that credit is today the normal and proper expression of value and of exchange has introduced an element of extreme instability into all contemporary economic systems. Modern economic systems appear to be balanced on a knife’s edge as it were; the tiniest excess or deficiency of national credit can tip the balance in one direction or the other. This system is minutely adjusted, so to speak, to reflect the smallest increment in weight which it can just support, and that is why it is so extremely sensitive.” –Karl Lamprecht
We have had decades of economic paving in this country, the road has been paved with what amounts too little more than “bills of credit”. With each manipulated “boom”, there has also come a very predictable “bust”; since each “boom” is completely financed by the creation of debt, these “booms” are, for the most part, economically superficial. These “booms” seem to make people think they are “wealthier” and act as though debt is wealth, when in reality it is just the opposite and sooner or later that reality makes itself known.
The current Fiat System is about to demand reality and that reality is about to come in the way of interest rates. This country, the government and indeed, the Federal Reserve has yet to see that this demand is on the way and are doing everything to avoid such rate increases, but it is pressing against the artificial barriers that have kept massive rate increases at bay, but the fragile economic damn grows weaker and weaker. Eventually, even the powers that be will not be able to restrain the forces that press against the rate process in this country. The combination of an extremely sensitive economy, high levels of risk in the throws of decay, the artificial rate racket is about to come to an end.
There is though, one huge problem; this reality will wreak havoc in an already sensitive Fiat economy. There has been a sign that few seem to be aware of and that sign is the decreasing margin of tolerance this economy has between the low levels and the highs it can manage while remaining viable. At one time the economy could tolerate higher rates without convulsing however, as we have seen, that is no longer the case. With each “boom” and “bust” the level of tolerance has narrowed substantially to the point that even minor increases become reactionary.
Our “money” supply is being inflated at a precipitous rate and eventually, and we won’t have to wait long, that monetary expansion will, it must be mirrored in interest rates. They, the government and the Fed, are, of course, attempting to keep money cheap, pumping it out in hopes that they can avoid massive business and individual economic failure. However, the eventualities of reality, a reality that none want to think about, will forcefully, even violently push through the illusionary blissful world of the fiat economy.
The Fed, and its government darlings, has attempted to suppress the forces that naturally bear down on a fiat economy by keeping rates as low as possible, all in the hopes of preventing widespread economic insolvency, but since they will eventually have no other options left to them, the reality will exert itself and the very thing they have sought to avoid by keeping rates low will happen as rates catapult to the point that the economy falters. The fiat economy will be placed on the harshest anvil of reality it has ever been subjected to…think Great Depression ten fold.
There were however, a few saving characteristics of The Great Depression that our contemporary society lacks. First, economic resiliency has been removed from our society, the manufacturing base has been effectively decimated and the people of this country are wholly unprepared for such distress, particularly those in urban areas. Additionally, in all likelihood, this next Depression era, will be conflated with hyperinflation rather than deflationary as was The Great Depression. The amazing thing about the Great Depression was its slow creep, like a vine, it slowly spread across the country. This current recession will prove to be just the beginning of a far larger, far deeper depressionary creep.
As much as the government tries, it’s attempts to “cure” the economic woes that it helped create will only make things worse. Politicians are quick to deflect blame, but the blame falls squarely on the shoulders of those power-twisters in Washington, D.C. This country and its people will face a period that few people can even conceive at this point.
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There have been a couple members of the Federal Reserve calling for higher rates for months. Here's the latest:
Fed's Stearn Supports Early Rate Hikes
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080718/bs_nm/usa_fed_stern_dc
I wish that the Fed had not lowered rates last year. They should have kept them the same or raised them. By lowering the rates they made our problems even worse. They devalued our dollar causing inflation in food and gas prices. This is likely leading to even more foreclosures rather than stemming them because people who were already stretched to the limits are now having to pay more to get to work and put food on the table. These people couldn't refinance because they had no equity to begin with either because they had 100% financing or because prices had fallen or both. So, the whole lowering rates to help people refinance out of their ARMs was fruitless.
The Fed and Congress caused these problems. The Fed by keeping rates too low too long and by Greenspan encouraging the use of ARMs by average people when interest rates were already at historical lows. ARMs are best used when rates are at all time highs because the likelihood is that they will go lower. When rates are already at all time lows, there is no place to go but up. The Congress contributed by encouraging home "ownership" through programs such as the FHA seller financed down payment program which has extremely high default rates. The private lenders also extended 100-125% financing without any regard to the borrower's ability to repay. Then they made things worse by bundling the loans and selling them to investors.
I'll be glad to see higher interest rates. Hopefully, it will help strengthen the dollar, allow lenders to adequately price for risk, and allow savers to receive higher interest on their accounts. Higher interest rates should also put more pressure on home prices, helping bring them back down to affordable levels.
The one thing that I am really worried about is the savings of Americans who have been prudent. I am unconvinced that the FDIC will have enough money to cover all of the potential bank failures. I don't know what to do, because taking out all of our savings seems crazy, but leaving it in the banks (even if it is all covered by FDIC limits) is terrifying. People say buy gold and PMs but, I am not convinced that there is not a PM bubble from all of the people fleeing to them for safety.
Ultimately, we have to abolish the Federal Reserve, return to the gold standard, and return to a small federal government that spends only within it's Constitutional limits. If Obama or McCain is elected, I fear it may be too late. Obama will kill us with more socialism, while placing a higher tax burden on the producers and savers. McCain will give us socialism lite and more war. Both will drive the dollar further into the ground through overspending and overborrowing. Our country desperately needs the wisdom and leadership of Ron Paul.
We have an enormous opportunity to bring Dr. Paul's message to the people right before the Republican Convention with the opening of the I.O.U.S.A. film in August. This film will thrust our country's economic problems into the consciousness of the masses. We must seize the moment and distribute information about the true cause of our economic problems and the real solutions. I'm usually a cynic, but this has given me hope that Dr. Paul might be able to come from nowhere to take the Republican nomination and the presidency.