What happened to $1000 Gold?
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http://www.swissamerica.com/article.php?art=04-2008/200804040452f.txt
Type of Content: Article From Swiss America - their analysis of the gold dip, and the comparison to pullbacks during the last few years. Read »
Created 31 weeks 4 days ago
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$700 gold looks ever more probable in the next few days to couple weeks.
Sorry Gold bugs.
Good news is that this would be what I see as very good long term support.
right on que... and not a peep from anyone who disagreed with me on this...
Original post from Thu, 07/10/2008 - 16:33
some more fibonacci numbers. This is simply amazing.
This all relates to the pattern I have been speaking of above..
5/12/06 high $730
6/14/16 low $543
730-543=187
187 x 1.618 = 302.5
5/12/06 high of 730 + 302.5 = 1032.5
And guess what the all time high set on 3/17/08 was??? thats right $1032... simply amazing!
In fibonacci "time" (days) from the breaking of that $730 high on 9/20/07 to 7/02/08 is exactly 1.618
and the most recent high was on 7/2... simply amazing!
1.382 in that same time frame was also the high on 5/12/08 with fibanocci time (1) being the all time high on 3/17/08.. simply amazing!
Next significant high be on 7/16 and low on 7/26 if my other time calculations are correct...
PS: had to update those dates as I didn't figure on taking out the weekends which don't count as trading days.. So look for a test or possible break of the April high next week then a pullback the following week. hmm or maybe a run to the all time high... possible.
Update 7/11 @ 13:03
So today we break the .618 and April high as suggested yesterday.
Some problems going forward as I am "leaning" to a move back under the April high.. This move higher hasn't been for the more fundamental reasons why we have seen Gold move $1000 in recent years.
As you well know there has been much talk of possible Israeli air strikes on Iran, the reason for this break higher... Something that will either escalate or calm down over the weekend.
It is also a gap which I am not to fond of cause they are either signs of break aways or exhaustion. I would prefer to wait another day or so for confirmation. Already the chart is signaling exhaustion, but I will wait and see. I would prefer to see a strong end of day rally to support a run higher, yet it has done nothing but pullback from the open. Time cycles will have to be readjusted in order to support todays break.
Update 7/18 @ 7:46
Adjusted time and price called for a high on Tuesday between $985-995 then pullback below April high (as previously stated) today 7/18... As usual waited for confirmation of any Fibonacci breaks... Tuesday was non confirmation... next time cycle turn is 7/24.. looks like today will be a significant low... two scenarios to look for by next Thursday 7/24
1) a move to $970-975
2) a move to $930-935
Leaning toward a move back up (1) but that will be dependent on todays action.. closing at the lows probably will further the chances of a move lower... a close near the highs should confirm (1)... but after that will be looking for more downside.
Update 7/22 @ 17:28
After opening strong and slightly surpassing my targeted area of $970-975 Gold sold off sharply to $946.
One thing I failed to consider is that "both" of these targeted prices could be hit during this time frame, which looks much more probable. I would be looking now for the next target ($930-935) to be hit by 7/24.
This huge move lower breaks the trend from June 12th and reestablishes itself within the longer and midterm trends higher. As stated look for a low on 7/24 between $930-935 with next time cycle turn being 7/29 with the possibility of a high around $955, but this is a very slim one. With moving averages diverging on a daily basis we could see a significant break to $893-897 by 7/29.
The next major date and this is a big one would be 8/5. If the moving averages continue this slump we have the possibility of a move to $875... This is a major line in the sand for the future of gold prices. If the financial mess continues (at least at face value) to get cleaned up and equities rally (what I expect until mid September) this may not bode well for the yellow metal. $875 would be a good base to hold and continue higher for the longer term.
I don't see much reason to update until then unless my numbers are way off.
Anybody reading this?
Please do not respond to this post as I will no longer be able to update if you do.
Thanks
writing a gold investment letter or working for a hedge fund making the big bucks.
Once again my target date of 8/5 (today) has arrived and as suggested 2 weeks ago gold has moved towards my targeted price. Right now a mere 2 dollars above, but I fully expect $875 to be hit before the FOMC announcement.
That's OK guys I will pat myself on the back once again. ;)
As stated above this will be a big test for the long term price as it is flirting with disaster at these levels. A bounce from here is probably in the cards but once again you always want to look for confirmations of the trend before making the assumption that this will be a good long term support area as we are no longer in the short term trend higher and have fallen back into the higher mid range of the longer term trend up.
If what I have been saying all along about the speculative bubbles bursting, the dollar strengthening and the Fed looking more hawkish and giving the impression of higher rates later this year this should no doubt be the break to $790-800 I had been talking of since May.
Oh yes, and as suggested here.
http://www.breakthematrix.com/node/8674#comment-13359
Oil continues to move towards my suggested price... probably before September.
one Attaboy for my amazingly accurate calls on the price movement in Gold?
What about my forecast for oil to start falling off its speculative cliff?
C'mon someone... my incredibly huge ego needs it.. lol :)
Pattern that is currently developing in the gold chart is eerily similar to what happened 2005-08. Then it also struggled with the .618 fib for a year and a half. I would be surprised to see the same type of pattern repeat.. One of the many reasons why I believe it will fail this time. But there are so many factors to take into consideration when making this assessment (dollar, interest rates, equities, oil etc) and as I have repeatedly said.. once it convincingly breaks that level I will be the first to say we will take a run at the all time high and maybe beyond.
I would love to post the charts I have to explain what is transpiring.. which does look a little more bullish now. but I am still not convinced of $1200 by years end.
Interestingly, notice the post you responded to and my take on the $870 level and the day I posted it... we had two out of three days close a little below that but both times it rallied very strong after being down then took off for a $70 dollar gain in two weeks. Thats what technical analysis is all about..
Gonna stick with what I say and I'll accept the heat that anyone wants to give me. It wouldn't be the first time I would have been wrong.
how Gold just refuses to break that April high and .618 fib that I have been talking about for almost the last 2 months. There appears to be a new channel (about a that $70 range) that has formed that has a modest upward slant to it. So eeeerirly similar still to what transpired in 2005-08. This time though, if we get to that other crucial $870 level and break... look out below... Bullish sentiment right now as high as when the price was at $1020.. Once again to clarify... any significant break above the April high or (now) below $870 should start a new trend.
The sharp minds I know are calling for around $1200 by years end.
All of the sharp minds I know...
http://www.dgcmagazine.com/index.php?q=node/63
John Lee from goldmau.com seems the most accurate:
There are those who predict a rebound of the dollar index and a protracted USD 800/oz gold price or even lower. They just don’t get the message. Gold is an international market. Physical gold demand is mostly from Asia and as long as Asian currencies keep strengthening, the USD-denominated gold price will keep going up, regardless of what happens to the US dollar index.
Mark
editor@dgcmagazine.com
Skype 'digitalcurrency'
have a little friendly debate amongst ourselves as to where the price is going. short term and long. We have similar views short term yet I tend to lean more to a impending breakdown of all commodities prices that probably began with 1020 Gold breaking down to 850. If we get a close at or below 870 in the next couple days I Think 800 is in the cards for sure, near term.
here to dispute what you may have suggested as a price target or support. I just tell whomever what the charts tell me. Putting ALL INFLATION aside cause that has no real technical basis in my trading style. The charts tell me 790-800 near term support. Anyone who can read a bar chart can tell you this. Problem is when we get there it doesn't look to pretty technically, without going into great detail with all kinds of facts and figures. I see a more longer term solid support at $660-670. But by the time we get there fundamentally things may be very different.
I have been listening to the gold bulls calls for $2000-5000 gold for over 20 yrs now, always using the same old tired argument and they haven't been right yet. Not to say that it couldn't happen, but I prefer to let the charts do the talking. Going to "the moon" is just pure hype and is foolish talk to real traders.
Now getting back to the inflation part of the question. You have read some of my posts regarding just how much of this surge in commodities is real monetary inflation or pure speculation, Yes a bubble!. You can believe what you want. Even with M3 running at close to a 20% annual clip (its happened before) it cannot justify 300 to 600% increases in commodities. Now that the speculation is over, prices will continue down (Am I making a prediction? my speculation and commodities post may prove to be quite prophetic ;) ..) the real question is where does the money flow next?
I'm looking at the 10-year chart now. Certainly there is a case for the 660-670 base. HOwever, I don't think that you can discount inflation and the U.S. dollars diminishing popularity. So many countries are carrying huge percentages of their reserves in U.S. dollars and have already begun to try to dump large percentages of them. As the world reduces the percentage of US dollars in their reserves, those dollars are going to find their way home and drive prices even higher and the dollar even lower.
Secondly, when we've been here before, the US was still a leader in many sectors of manufacturing. We've lost most of that now, so the growth in dollars is even less supported by real productivity. This is another factor that would push gold higher.
Finally, just from a technical perspective, doesn't the consolidation around 880-900 that we are seeing now look just like the consolidation around 600 back in '06? That was followed by a huge move up. The flag or wedge seems to be forming now in exactly the same shape as it did at 600.
Does any of this at least give you pause?
Tom Mullen
www.tommullen.net
www.myspace.com/skepticsongs
absolutely... My objective when analyzing is very short term (daytrading). I always block out all the noise on the news or inflation front. As time passes things change, charts change, moving averages change. If gold clears that .618 level back to 1000 I will be the first to say I was wrong and jump in on the trend. I see it caught that lower trend from 5/1 -5/13-5/29 hmmm did you say bullish wedge? I'll wait it out, great time for false breakouts with all this overlap. Nasdaq is a better trade lately.
great comments here, glad to see it. thanks.
performance is no guarantee of future results... Gold to $790-800 coming soon to a theater near you. ;)
After that I let you know whats next.
But my friend, who is the REAL trader amongst us (my friends and me, I mean), picked out that $750-$800 back in February. He also thinks it's going to the moon in the next few years, but we all agree that a dip down to the $800 support level (and lower with the government doing everything it can to attack it) will come first.
Just curious - why do you tink it's not going to go higher, given all of the inflation?
Tom Mullen
www.tommullen.net
www.myspace.com/skepticsongs