Whether you are investing in stocks or gold you are placing a bet on future performance. If I had precognition I would just pick the right lottery numbers and get instantly rich. But I don't have precognition and neither do the analyst's. Maybe they guess right and maybe they don't. Predicting the future is tough. That's why I like Harry Browne's approach which he revealed in his book "Fail-safe Investing". His strategy recognizes that you cannot predict the future. So it uses a widely diversified portfolio based on stocks, gold, bonds and cash to reduce risk. There is also a mutual fund called the "Permanent Portfolio" (PRPFX) which is loosely modeled on that approach. It's not a spectacular performer. But it has averaged returns of about 12% over the last 5 years, with no losing years in the last ten.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=PRPFX

Dave's disclaimer- This is not a recommendation to buy. Its just my non-expert opinion as an over-the-hill retired engineer. ( In other words, if you buy it and loose your butt, don't blame me.)