Michael Shermer: Toward a Type 1 civilization
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http://richarddawkins.net/article,2899,n,n
Type of Content: Article Our civilization is fast approaching a tipping point. Humans will need to make the transition from nonrenewable fossil fuels as the primary source of our energy to renewable energy sources that will allow us to flourish into the future. Failure to make that transformation will doom us to the endless political machinations and economic conflicts that have plagued civilization for the last half-millennium. We need new technologies to be sure, but without evolved political and economic systems, we cannot become what we must. And what is that? A Type 1 civilization. Let me explain. In a 1964 article on searching for extraterrestrial civilizations, the Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev suggested using radio telescopes to detect energy signals from other solar systems in which there might be civilizations of three levels of advancement: Type 1 can harness all of the energy of its home planet; Type 2 can harvest all of the power of its sun; and Type 3 can master the energy from its entire galaxy. Based on our energy efficiency at the time, in 1973 the astronomer Carl Sagan estimated that Earth represented a Type 0.7 civilization on a Type 0 to Type 1 scale. (More current assessments put us at 0.72.) As the Kardashevian scale is logarithmic -- where any increase in power consumption requires a huge leap in power production -- we have a ways before 1.0. Fossil fuels won't get us there. Renewable sources such as solar, wind and geothermal are a good start, and coupled to nuclear power could eventually get us to Type 1. Yet the hurdles are not solely -- or even primarily -- technological ones. We have a proven track record of achieving remarkable scientific solutions to survival problems -- as long as there is the political will and economic opportunities that allow the solutions to flourish. In other words, we need a Type 1 polity and economy, along with the technology, in order to become a Type 1 civilization. We are close. If we use the Kardashevian scale to plot humankind's progress, it shows how far we've come in the long history of our species from Type 0, and it leads us to see what a Type 1 civilization might be like: Type 0.1: Fluid groups of hominids living in Africa. Technology consists of primitive stone tools. Intra-group conflicts are resolved through dominance hierarchy, and between-group violence is common. Type 0.2: Bands of roaming hunter-gatherers that form kinship groups, with a mostly horizontal political system and egalitarian economy. Type 0.3: Tribes of individuals linked through kinship but with a more settled and agrarian lifestyle. The beginnings of a political hierarchy and a primitive economic division of labor. Type 0.4: Chiefdoms consisting of a coalition of tribes into a single hierarchical political unit with a dominant leader at the top, and with the beginnings of significant economic inequalities and a division of labor in which lower-class members produce food and other products consumed by non-producing upper-class members. Type 0.5: The state as a political coalition with jurisdiction over a well-defined geographical territory and its corresponding inhabitants, with a mercantile economy that seeks a favorable balance of trade in a win-lose game against other states. Type 0.6: Empires extend their control over peoples who are not culturally, ethnically or geographically within their normal jurisdiction, with a goal of economic dominance over rival empires. Type 0.7: Democracies that divide power over several institutions, which are run by elected officials voted for by some citizens. The beginnings of a market economy. Type 0.8: Liberal democracies that give the vote to all citizens. Markets that begin to embrace a nonzero, win-win economic game through free trade with other states. Type 0.9: Democratic capitalism, the blending of liberal democracy and free markets, now spreading across the globe through democratic movements in developing nations and broad trading blocs such as the European Union. Type 1.0: Globalism that includes worldwide wireless Internet access, with all knowledge digitized and available to everyone. A completely global economy with free markets in which anyone can trade with anyone else without interference from states or governments. A planet where all states are democracies in which everyone has the franchise. The forces at work that could prevent us from making the great leap forward to a Type 1 civilization are primarily political and economic. The resistance by nondemocratic states to turning power over to the people is considerable, especially in theocracies whose leaders would prefer we all revert to Type 0.4 chiefdoms. The opposition toward a global economy is substantial, even in the industrialized West, where economic tribalism still dominates the thinking of most politicians, intellectuals and citizens. For thousands of years, we have existed in a zero-sum tribal world in which a gain for one tribe, state or nation meant a loss for another tribe, state or nation -- and our political and economic systems have been designed for use in that win-lose world. But we have the opportunity to live in a win-win world and become a Type 1 civilization by spreading liberal democracy and free trade, in which the scientific and technological benefits will flourish. I am optimistic because in the evolutionist's deep time and the historian's long view, the trend lines toward achieving Type 1 status tick inexorably upward. That is change we can believe in. Michael Shermer is an adjunct professor in the School of Politics and Economics at Claremont Graduate University, the publisher of Skeptic magazine and a monthly columnist for Scientific American. His latest book is "The Mind of the Market." Read »
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>>"For thousands of years, we have existed in a zero-sum tribal world in which a gain for one tribe, state or nation meant a loss for another tribe, state or nation -- and our political and economic systems have been designed for use in that win-lose world. But we have the opportunity to live in a win-win world and become a Type 1 civilization by spreading liberal democracy and free trade, in which the scientific and technological benefits will flourish. I am optimistic because in the evolutionist's deep time and the historian's long view, the trend lines toward achieving Type 1 status tick inexorably upward."
Shermer is way too optimistic. "Spreading democracy" has proven to be a lot more difficult than it sounds, and there is no denying the intractability of the cultural and religious influences that drive people into conflict (in spite of better technology and increased trade). Gotit is right. Past attempts to erase cultural and religious differences have usually been tyrannical and bloody. I would add that there is little evidence that mere contact with a better culture leads to the demise of a worse culture.
I think all we can do is to realize what aspects of our culture are great, and stand up for these things. As long as we have antagonists we will need borders, and military strength. Operating on any other assumption would be to invite annihilation by the enemies of everything we stand for.
I can agree with military protection of (our own) borders, it is consistent with private property. "Democracy" must be defined. The U.S. is supposed to be a constitutional republic, anyone who reads the Founders knows they were not big fans of democracy. But after 100 years of Marxist indoctrination in the govschools most Americans think the U.S. is supposed to be a "democracy".
Shermer is correct in that free trade supports wealth creation and that is the key to eliminating the zero-sum game that exists in the planned and controlled economies where there is little wealth creation and so much bickering over scarce resources. But I do wonder about his definition of "free trade". NAFTA, CAFTA, etc. are not the "free trade" agreements they are billed as, they are managed trade. More than free trade is needed for wealth creation. Liberty, real freedom to set up a business without being taxed out of all profits, managed and harangued by bureaucrats, bullied by already existing business organizations is what is needed. What is the use of starting a business in the U.S.? The web of red tape, the siphoning off of profits, the legal hassles, the control of capital, and use of regulations to get rid of competition destroy entrepreneurism. The people of the U.S. are simply to be cogs in the planned economy, we are trained like dogs to that end in the govschools. Planned economies do not create wealth, they steal it and prevent wealth creation. China is a prime example. Their economy is exploding because the rulers understand that they must allow the golden goose to lay the egg and allow incentive to do so. There was very little to eat in the USSR until the breakup and the increase in capitalism allowed there. Marxism in all its forms leads to poverty and death.
>>>>A completely global economy with free markets in which anyone can trade with anyone else without interference from states or governments. A planet where all states are democracies in which everyone has the franchise.<<<
This is contradictory. Democracies run on majority/mob rule. Anyone can claim a stake in anyone elses activities and vote to curtail that persons trade/activities ending the "free market".
Space travel will require other energy sources, but we really don't know the current state of actual amounts of fossil fuels because the state controls information and engages in protectionism of their cronies, the current administration and the oil industry comes to mind. Fossil fuels might last a lot longer without the state using it at the rate they are for wars.
>>>>The forces at work that could prevent us from making the great leap forward to a Type 1 civilization are primarily political and economic. The resistance by nondemocratic states to turning power over to the people is considerable, especially in theocracies whose leaders would prefer we all revert to Type 0.4 chiefdoms.<<<
The Great Leap Forward to a Marxist Peoples State (power to "the people")?? Hasn't this murderous state worship been tried enough?? Haven't enough people been killed to create Utopia?? The worst "theocracy" is that of state worship, the love of Big Brother.
This entire screed is a thinly veiled apologetic for using the fossil fuel "crisis" as a pretext to force social change. And tha author understands very well that people who worship God and not men are the only thing standing in their way. No wonder this was on Dawkins' site.